March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Roche Holding AG, Switzerland`s second- largest drugmaker, will sell about 200 million pounds ($384 million) worth of the anti-viral medicine Tamiflu to the U.K. as part of the government`s plan to counter an influenza pandemic that might kill more than 50,000 people in the country.

Although the country will get enough the drug to treat 14.6 million people, or a quarter of the U.K. population, Tamiflu won`t prevent the disease, ``but could slow its progress,`` U.K. Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson told journalists today in London.

The U.K. action follows a call by the World Health Organization for governments to prepare for an influenza pandemic, similar to those that killed between 20 million and 40 million people worldwide in 1918-1919, about 1 million in 1957-1958 and between 1 million and 4 million in 1968-1969.

``Ultimately the defeat of this will be a vaccine,`` U.K. Health Secretary John Reid said at a joint press conference.

A vaccine will first require the strain to be identified, then ``four to six weeks`` of development, so ``nothing will come early enough`` to stop the first ``wave`` of the pandemic, Reid said. ``Maybe it will be in time for the second one.``

Basel, Switzerland-based Roche will deliver about half of the Tamiflu treatments by the end of the 2005-2006 financial year, with the remainder coming in the following year, the Department of Health said.

Bird Flu

Countries are preparing for an outbreak because of concerns about the H5N1 avian influenza virus in Southeast Asia. Scientists say that virus may mutate into a strain that can easily be transmitted between humans.

So far, the bird flu epidemic killed at least 42 people in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. There is ``no evidence so far of sustained person-to-person transmission,`` Donaldson said at the press conference, held at Department of Health headquarters.

``Mixing`` of a human flu virus with the avian flu virus could occur in a human, or in a pig, Donaldson said. That could create a new strain that`s ``much more transmissible and has the more severe effects of bird flu,`` and against which ``a virgin population has no natural immunity,`` he said.

The next influenza pandemic will come in one or more waves lasting about three months each, killing between 2 million and 50 million people worldwide, according to U.K. Health Department documents published today. Between 6.4 million and 28.1 million people will be need hospital treatment.

Only 280,000 to 650,000 of the deaths will be in rich countries, the figures show. Poor countries are more vulnerable because their health services are less advanced.

Out of a total U.K. population of about 59 million, almost a quarter, or 14.5 million, will become ill, and at least 80,000 will need hospital stays. The U.K. death estimate of 50,000 is also a ``minimum,`` the booklet states.

Expected U.S. deaths are estimated at between 89,000 and 207,000, and U.S. hospitalizations between 314,000 and 734,000.

Author: Bloomberg

Published On: 03 March 2005

Source: http://www.uk-clinic.co.uk